Uncertainty in groundwater flow simulations caused by multiple modeling approaches, at the Mizunami Underground Research Laboratory, Japan

Sawada, Atsushi; Saegusa, Hiromitsu; Ijiri, Yuji*

Dynamics of Fluids and Transport in Fractured Rock, Geophysical Monograph Series 162, p.91 - 101, 2005/00

This paper demonstrates an example to evaluate uncertainties involved in hy-drogeological modeling. This study was conducted by employing multiple mod-eling experts and/or conceptual models with defining performance measures (PMs) from the performance assessment of high level radioactive waste disposal point of view. Five hydrogeological model based on data obtained from the sur-face-based investigation phase at/around underground research laboratory con-struction site, Tono area, Gifu prefecture, Japan, and PMs calculated from the numerical simulations by each model were compared, and we found major un-certainties at the stage of site characterization.